Young Boys W 3–0 Aarau W: Result & Stats

Young Boys W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aarau W

2/7/2026

AXA Women’s Super League · Round 13Stadion Neufeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Young Boys W62%

×Draw19%

Aarau W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys WExpected goals in this matchAarau W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.15

Young Boys W

2.27

Aarau W

1.15

Young Boys W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 54 away

2.07

creates per match

0.74

1.55

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Young Boys W

2.07

Aarau W

0.74

allows per match

Young Boys W

1.55

Aarau W

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys W+0.00on par

Aarau W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys W ↓

Aarau W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Young Boys W or draw

82%

Young Boys W or Aarau W

81%

Draw or Aarau W

38%

Winning margin

Young Boys W wins by 2+

40%

Aarau W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Young Boys W 1+ goals

90%

Young Boys W 2+ goals

66%

Young Boys W 3+ goals

39%

Aarau W 1+ goals

68%

Aarau W 2+ goals

32%

Aarau W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Young Boys W (draw refunded)

77%

Aarau W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys W at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.55 · 55 matches

Aarau W away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.48 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys W attack 2.07 + Aarau W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.27

Aarau W attack 0.74 + Young Boys W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Young Boys W scores more

62%

level

19%

Aarau W scores more

18%

Young Boys W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Young Boys W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff