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Aarau W vs Young Boys W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Aarau W
Aarau W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Young Boys W
Young Boys W
2/10/2024AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 12Sportanlage Schachen - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Aarau W27%
×Draw22%
Young Boys W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarau W
1.34
Young Boys W
1.91

Young Boys W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 57 away

creates per match

Aarau W
0.96
Young Boys W
1.86

allows per match

Aarau W
1.95
Young Boys W
1.72

finishing

Aarau W+0.00on par
Young Boys W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarau W ↓

Young Boys W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Aarau W or draw
49%
Aarau W or Young Boys W
78%
Draw or Young Boys W
73%

Winning margin

Aarau W wins by 2+
12%
Young Boys W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Aarau W 1+ goals
74%
Aarau W 2+ goals
39%
Aarau W 3+ goals
15%
Young Boys W 1+ goals
85%
Young Boys W 2+ goals
57%
Young Boys W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Aarau W (draw refunded)
35%
Young Boys W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarau W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.95 · 55 matches

Young Boys W away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarau W attack 0.96 + Young Boys W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.34

Young Boys W attack 1.86 + Aarau W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aarau W scores more
27%
level
22%
Young Boys W scores more
51%

Young Boys W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Young Boys W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarau W vs Young Boys W

Young Boys W beat Aarau W 5-0 in AXA Women’s Super League on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schachen - Kunstrasenplatz in Aarau.