Young Boys U19 3–3 Valencia U19: Result & Stats

Young Boys U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Valencia U19

J. Kronig 66' (pen)

N. Maier 26'

S. Vladi 10'

Jose Lechon 82'

Lee Kangin 59'

José Pascual 17'

10/23/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Sportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz (Bern)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Young Boys U1946%

×Draw21%

Valencia U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchValencia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.77

Young Boys U19

2.09

Valencia U19

1.77

Young Boys U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.69

creates per match

1.17

2.38

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.69

Valencia U19

1.17

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.38

Valencia U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Valencia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

Valencia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

67%

Young Boys U19 or Valencia U19

79%

Draw or Valencia U19

54%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

26%

Valencia U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

88%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

62%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

34%

Valencia U19 1+ goals

83%

Valencia U19 2+ goals

53%

Valencia U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Valencia U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Valencia U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.69 + Valencia U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.09

Valencia U19 attack 1.17 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

46%

level

21%

Valencia U19 scores more

33%

Young Boys U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Young Boys U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Vladi↳ F. Mambimbi

17'

José Pascual↳ Fran Cortijo

26'

N. Maier↳ S. Vladi

46'

Óscar Poveda← Carlos Badal

47'

Vicente Esquerdo← Carlos Pérez

59'

Lee Kangin

62'

T. Alonso← S. Ballet

64'

Jose Lechon← Ricardo da Costa Campos

66'

J. KronigPenalty

72'

L. Bueche← N. Maier

79'

Martín Lapeña← Pablo Jiménez

82'

Jose Lechon↳ Fran Cortijo

83'

Fabiano Pereira Andrade← S. Vladi

Young

Valencia

1

Rodriguez

2

▼

6

4

5

3

A

Cortijo

8

⚽

Pascual

10

⚽

Kangin

7

▼

Pérez

9

▼

Campos

11

▼

Jiménez

1

Neuenschw

5

Hajrizi

4

⚽

2

3

8

10

⚽A

▼

Vladi

7

⚽

▼

Maier

6

Malula

11

A

Mambimbi

9

▼

Ballet

Manager: J. Magnin

62'▲T. Alonso←▼S. Ballet

72'▲L. Bueche←▼N. Maier

83'▲Fabiano Pereira Andrade←▼S. Vladi

Young Boys U19 substitutes

16Alonso12Bueche19Andrade15Blum17Boss14Golliard18Zbinden

Manager: Mista

46'▲Óscar Poveda←▼Carlos Badal

47'▲Vicente Esquerdo←▼Carlos Pérez

64'▲Jose Lechon←▼Ricardo da Costa Campos

79'▲Martín Lapeña←▼Pablo Jiménez

Valencia U19 substitutes

12Poveda14Esquerdo18Lechon17Lapeña15Estacio13Abril16Martinez

Match Recap: Young Boys U19 vs Valencia U19

Young Boys U19 and Valencia U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on October 23, 2018.

Goals: S. Vladi (10'), José Pascual (17'), N. Maier (26'), Lee Kangin (59'), J. Kronig (66' pen), Jose Lechon (82').

The match was played at Sportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz (Bern).

Young Boys U19 vs Valencia U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Young Boys U19 vs Valencia U19