Valencia U19 0–1 Young Boys U19: Result & Stats

Valencia U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Young Boys U19

J. De Donno 83'

11/7/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Estadio Antonio Puchades (Paterna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Valencia U1938%

×Draw23%

Young Boys U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valencia U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.67

Valencia U19

1.63

Young Boys U19

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Valencia U19

1.17

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Valencia U19

2.00

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Valencia U19 or draw

61%

Valencia U19 or Young Boys U19

77%

Draw or Young Boys U19

62%

Winning margin

Valencia U19 wins by 2+

19%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Valencia U19 1+ goals

80%

Valencia U19 2+ goals

48%

Valencia U19 3+ goals

22%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

81%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

50%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Valencia U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia U19 attack 1.17 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.63

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Valencia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valencia U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

Young Boys U19 scores more

39%

Young Boys U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Young Boys U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Martín Lapeña← Ricardo da Costa Campos

73'

L. Bueche← N. Maier

75'

Fran Cortijo← Vazquez Alcalde

79'

N. Boss← T. Alonso

79'

J. De Donno← S. Ballet

82'

Carlos Pérez← Vicente Esquerdo

83'

J. De Donno

90+2'

Breston Malula← S. Vladi

Valencia

Young

1

5

4

2

6

3

8

10

▼

Vladi

7

▼

Maier

11

▼

Alonso

9

▼

1

4

5

2

3

▼

Alcalde

8

▼

Esquerdo

6

Pascual

10

Kang-In

7

▼

Campos

9

Escobar

11

Jiménez

Manager: Mista

46'▲Martín Lapeña←▼Ricardo da Costa Campos

75'▲Fran Cortijo←▼Vazquez Alcalde

82'▲Carlos Pérez←▼Vicente Esquerdo

Valencia U19 substitutes

18Lapeña12Cortijo16Pérez14Estacio17Martinez15Poveda13Huesca

Manager: J. Magnin

73'▲L. Bueche←▼N. Maier

79'▲N. Boss←▼T. Alonso

79'▲J. De Donno←▼S. Ballet

90+2'▲Breston Malula←▼S. Vladi

Young Boys U19 substitutes

12Bueche15Boss19Donno16Malula14Golliard18Zbinden17Hochuli

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 0–1 Young Boys U19

Young Boys U19 beat Valencia U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2018.

Goals: J. De Donno (83').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades (Paterna).

Valencia U19 vs Young Boys U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 0–1 Young Boys U19