Young Boys U19 1–3 RB Leipzig U19: Result & Stats

Young Boys U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

RB Leipzig U19

M. Deme 41'

J. Norbye 77'

Y. Eduardo 47' (pen), 35'

9/19/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Young Boys U1937%

×Draw23%

RB Leipzig U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.75

Young Boys U19

1.67

RB Leipzig U19

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

1.00

2.50

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.71

RB Leipzig U19

1.00

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.50

RB Leipzig U19

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

60%

Young Boys U19 or RB Leipzig U19

77%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

63%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

19%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

81%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

50%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

23%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

83%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

52%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

48%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.71 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

RB Leipzig U19 attack 1.00 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

37%

level

23%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

40%

RB Leipzig U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Y. Eduardo↳ J. Sachse

41'

M. Deme↳ J. Bomo

43'

L. Dalipi

47'

A. Bajrami

47'

Y. EduardoPenalty

59'

E. Schläfli← L. Dalipi

59'

H. Parra← J. Bomo

63'

A. Bayindir← A. Bulland

63'

T. Kaufmann← J. Sachse

75'

D. Mouta← R. Smith

75'

A. Ogouvide← T. Murith

77'

J. Norbye↳ S. Schierack

78'

L. Buljan← J. Dema

86'

A. Krause← L. Koß

90+2'

L. Voufack← T. Meyer

90+2'

M. Kponton← S. Schierack

Young

RB

33

Dickes

15

▼

Meyer

5

Hennig

4

⚽

Norbye

25

▼

Koß

8

A

▼

Schierack

14

▼

Bulland

6

Lenz

18

Osawe

9

⚽2

Eduardo

16

A

▼

Sachse

1

Bajrami

4

Henchoz

2

▼

Murith

3

▼

Smith

5

Seiler

10

A

▼

Bomo

11

⚽

Deme

6

▼

Dema

8

Rufener

7

▼

Dalipi

9

Lüthi

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

59'▲E. Schläfli←▼L. Dalipi

59'▲H. Parra←▼J. Bomo

75'▲D. Mouta←▼R. Smith

75'▲A. Ogouvide←▼T. Murith

78'▲L. Buljan←▼J. Dema

Young Boys U19 substitutes

13Schläfli15Parra17Mouta12Ogouvide16Buljan14Jost18Bracher

Manager: M. Baum

63'▲A. Bayindir←▼A. Bulland

63'▲T. Kaufmann←▼J. Sachse

86'▲A. Krause←▼L. Koß

90+2'▲L. Voufack←▼T. Meyer

90+2'▲M. Kponton←▼S. Schierack

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

17Bayindir11Kaufmann12Krause3Voufack26Kponton22Janosch2Havrylenko

Match Recap: Young Boys U19 vs RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Young Boys U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 19, 2023.

Goals: Y. Eduardo (35', 47' pen), M. Deme (41'), J. Norbye (77').

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.

Young Boys U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Young Boys U19 vs RB Leipzig U19