RB Leipzig U19 0–0 Young Boys U19: Result & Stats

RB Leipzig U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Young Boys U19

12/13/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

RB Leipzig U1933%

×Draw23%

Young Boys U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.71

RB Leipzig U19

1.46

Young Boys U19

1.71

Young Boys U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

0.83

creates per match

1.33

2.08

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

0.83

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.08

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

56%

RB Leipzig U19 or Young Boys U19

77%

Draw or Young Boys U19

67%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

15%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

77%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

43%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

18%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

82%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

51%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 0.83 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.46

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

33%

level

23%

Young Boys U19 scores more

44%

Young Boys U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Young Boys U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. Mouta Borges

41'

J. Dema

59'

T. Kaufmann

61'

W. Osawe← A. Bulland

61'

O. Havrylenko← E. Bitshiabu

64'

E. Etoski← D. Mouta

70'

T. Meyer

74'

M. Kponton← M. Stadel

74'

C. Onuoha← T. Kaufmann

75'

M. Jungo← E. Rufener

83'

L. Johanns← N. Jatta

87'

B. Berisha← H. Parra

RB

Young

1

4

2

3

5

7

▼

Mouta

6

Dema

10

▼

Rufener

8

Jost

9

▼

Parra

11

Lüthi

1

Schlieck

4

▼

15

13

5

8

14

▼

Bulland

6

Lenz

21

▼

Jatta

11

▼

Kaufmann

16

▼

Stadel

Manager: M. Baum

61'▲W. Osawe←▼A. Bulland

61'▲O. Havrylenko←▼E. Bitshiabu

74'▲M. Kponton←▼M. Stadel

74'▲C. Onuoha←▼T. Kaufmann

83'▲L. Johanns←▼N. Jatta

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

18Osawe2Havrylenko28Kponton20Onuoha23Johanns25Koß33Dickes

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

64'▲E. Etoski←▼D. Mouta

75'▲M. Jungo←▼E. Rufener

87'▲B. Berisha←▼H. Parra

Young Boys U19 substitutes

17Etoski14Jungo16Berisha15Münger18Bracher12Thermoncy13Ademi