Young Boys U19 3–3 Rangers U19: Result & Stats

Young Boys U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Rangers U19

G. De Donno 90+2'

M. Eberhard 75'

S. Kasongo 49'

C. Dickson 57'

D. Finlayson 53'

N. Patterson 12'

10/3/2019

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundSportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Young Boys U1933%

×Draw20%

Rangers U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchRangers U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.33

Young Boys U19

1.92

Rangers U19

2.33

Rangers U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.69

creates per match

2.29

2.38

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.69

Rangers U19

2.29

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.38

Rangers U19

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

Rangers U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

53%

Young Boys U19 or Rangers U19

80%

Draw or Rangers U19

67%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

17%

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

85%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

57%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

30%

Rangers U19 1+ goals

90%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

67%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Rangers U19 away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.69 + Rangers U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.92

Rangers U19 attack 2.29 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

33%

level

20%

Rangers U19 scores more

47%

Rangers U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rangers U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

B. Williamson← L. Mayo

12'

49'

53'

57'

62'

63'

73'

M. Eberhard← S. Kasongo

75'

M. Eberhard

88'

A. Lyall← N. Young-Coombes

88'

Z. Butterworth← N. Patterson

90'

M. Jenni← S. Ballet

90+2'

G. De Donno

Young

Rangers

1

Budinauck

4

▼

Mayo

6

Breen

5

⚽

Finlayson

2

⚽

▼

Patterson

3

Maxwell

10

Miller

14

⚽

Dickson

7

Mebude

11

Kennedy

9

▼

1

8

4

2

▼

3

5

10

6

11

⚽

▼

Kasongo

7

▼

Ris

9

▼

Ballet

Manager: A. Mangiarratti

62'▲G. De Donno←▼J. Ris

63'▲J. De Donno←▼L. Blum

73'▲M. Eberhard←▼S. Kasongo

90'▲M. Jenni←▼S. Ballet

Young Boys U19 substitutes

15Donno16Donno17Eberhard13Jenni12Amenda19Andrade18Zbinden

Manager: G. Murty

11'▲B. Williamson←▼L. Mayo

88'▲A. Lyall←▼N. Young-Coombes

88'▲Z. Butterworth←▼N. Patterson

Rangers U19 substitutes

8Williamson17Lyall12Butterworth16McKee21Hogarth18Ritchie-Hosler15McClelland

UEFA Youth League: Young Boys U19 3–3 Rangers U19

Young Boys U19 and Rangers U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on October 3, 2019.

Goals: N. Patterson (12'), S. Kasongo (49'), D. Finlayson (53'), C. Dickson (57'), M. Eberhard (75'), G. De Donno (90+2').

The match was played at Sportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz in Bern.

Young Boys U19 vs Rangers U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Young Boys U19 3–3 Rangers U19