Rangers U19 2–2 Young Boys U19: Result & Stats

Rangers U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Young Boys U19

D. Finlayson 81'

N. Young-Coombes 40'

N. Maier 44', 28'

10/23/2019

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundThe Energy Check Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rangers U1946%

×Draw21%

Young Boys U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.72

Rangers U19

2.04

Young Boys U19

1.72

Rangers U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

2.11

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Rangers U19

2.00

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Rangers U19

2.11

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Rangers U19 or draw

67%

Rangers U19 or Young Boys U19

79%

Draw or Young Boys U19

54%

Winning margin

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

26%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rangers U19 1+ goals

87%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

60%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

33%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

82%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

51%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers U19 attack 2.00 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Rangers U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rangers U19 scores more

46%

level

21%

Young Boys U19 scores more

33%

Rangers U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rangers U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

40'

44'

72'

81'

83'

C. McKee← N. Young-Coombes

84'

M. Eberhard← S. Kasongo

86'

E. Shaqiri← J. Ris

90+6'

H. O'Connor← C. Dickson

90'

J. Bichsel← P. Schüpbach

90'

G. De Donno← J. De Donno

Rangers

Young

1

Zbinden

2

Muteba

3

▼

Schüpbach

4

Geiger

5

Crnovrsan

10

⚽2

Maier

6

Malula

8

▼

Kasongo

7

▼

Ris

11

Ballet

9

▼

Donno

1

Budinauck

6

Breen

5

⚽

Finlayson

2

Patterson

3

Maxwell

8

▼

Miller

4

Williamso

10

▼

Dickson

11

Kennedy

7

⚽

▼

Young-Coo

9

Mebude

Manager: G. Murty

72'▲A. Lyall←▼M. Miller

83'▲C. McKee←▼N. Young-Coombes

90+6'▲H. O'Connor←▼C. Dickson

Rangers U19 substitutes

17Lyall16McKee19O'Connor12Butterworth18Ritchie-Hosler21Hogarth14Balde

Manager: A. Mangiarratti

84'▲M. Eberhard←▼S. Kasongo

86'▲E. Shaqiri←▼J. Ris

90'▲J. Bichsel←▼P. Schüpbach

90'▲G. De Donno←▼J. De Donno

Young Boys U19 substitutes

20Eberhard16Shaqiri12Bichsel13Donno18Eicher15Neumeister17Wenger