Young Boys U19 1–2 Manchester United U19

Young Boys U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Manchester United U19

J. Kronig 15' (pen)

A. Gomes 90+3' (pen)

M. Greenwood 20'

9/19/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Sportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz (Bern)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Young Boys U1931%

×Draw22%

Manchester United U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchManchester United U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.95

Young Boys U19

1.55

Manchester United U19

1.95

Manchester United U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.71

creates per match

1.40

2.50

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.71

Manchester United U19

1.40

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.50

Manchester United U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Manchester United U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

Manchester United U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

53%

Young Boys U19 or Manchester United U19

78%

Draw or Manchester United U19

69%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

15%

Manchester United U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

79%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

46%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

20%

Manchester United U19 1+ goals

86%

Manchester United U19 2+ goals

58%

Manchester United U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Manchester United U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Manchester United U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.71 + Manchester United U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Manchester United U19 attack 1.40 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

31%

level

22%

Manchester United U19 scores more

47%

Manchester United U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manchester United U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. KronigPenalty

20'

M. Greenwood

46'

L. Bueche← S. Ballet

46'

R. Golliard← S. Vladi

68'

A. Traore← J. Bohui

69'

P. Schüpbach← Y. Hochuli

70'

B. Williams← G. Tanner

80'

N. Maier← N. Boss

85'

Arnau Martínez← A. Barlow

85'

M. Baars← M. Greenwood

87'

Breston Malula← E. Petignat

90+3'

A. GomesPenalty

Young

Manchester

1

Kovář

4

Laird

3

O'Connor

7

▼

Barlow

10

⚽

Gomes

16

Bernard

6

Garner

8

⚽

▼

Greenwood

11

Chong

9

▼

Bohui

2

▼

Tanner

1

Neuenschw

5

Hajrizi

4

⚽

Kronig

2

Muteba

3

▼

Hochuli

6

▼

Petignat

8

Tokam

7

▼

Boss

10

▼

Vladi

11

Mambimbi

9

▼

Ballet

Manager: J. Magnin

46'▲L. Bueche←▼S. Ballet

46'▲R. Golliard←▼S. Vladi

69'▲P. Schüpbach←▼Y. Hochuli

80'▲N. Maier←▼N. Boss

87'▲Breston Malula←▼E. Petignat

Young Boys U19 substitutes

15Bueche14Golliard17Schüpbach12Maier19Malula18Zbinden16Alonso

Manager: N. Butt

68'▲A. Traore←▼J. Bohui

70'▲B. Williams←▼G. Tanner

85'▲Arnau Martínez←▼A. Barlow

85'▲M. Baars←▼M. Greenwood

Manchester United U19 substitutes

14Traore20Williams21Martínez29Baars19Levitt12Dunne13Fojtíček