Manchester United U19 6–2 Young Boys U19

Manchester United U19

FT

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Young Boys U19

D. Bughai 90'

D. Levitt 87'

T. Chong 81' (pen)

A. Barlow 79' (pen)

M. Greenwood 30', 25'

J. Kronig 32' (pen)

F. Mambimbi 7'

11/27/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Leigh Sports Village Stadium (Leigh, Greater Manchester)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Manchester United U1959%

×Draw19%

Young Boys U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester United U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.39

Manchester United U19

2.38

Young Boys U19

1.39

Manchester United U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.67

creates per match

1.33

1.44

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Manchester United U19

2.67

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Manchester United U19

1.44

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Manchester United U19 or draw

78%

Manchester United U19 or Young Boys U19

81%

Draw or Young Boys U19

41%

Winning margin

Manchester United U19 wins by 2+

38%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester United U19 1+ goals

91%

Manchester United U19 2+ goals

68%

Manchester United U19 3+ goals

42%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

75%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

40%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Manchester United U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United U19 attack 2.67 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Manchester United U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Manchester United U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Young Boys U19 scores more

22%

Manchester United U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Manchester United U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

F. Mambimbi

24'

B. Williams← E. Laird

25'

M. Greenwood↳ A. Traore

30'

M. Greenwood

32'

J. KronigPenalty

65'

D. Bughai← J. Bohui

70'

L. Bueche← N. Maier

70'

J. De Donno← S. Ballet

76'

Breston Malula← S. Tokam

79'

Arnau Martínez← L. OConnor

79'

D. Levitt← A. Barlow

79'

A. BarlowPenalty

81'

T. ChongPenalty

82'

F. Rieder← T. Alonso

87'

D. Levitt↳ A. Traore

90'

D. Bughai↳ Arnau Martínez

Manchester

Young

1

Neuenschw

5

Hajrizi

4

⚽

2

6

3

8

▼

Tokam

7

▼

Maier

10

⚽

Mambimbi

11

▼

Alonso

9

▼

Ballet

1

Kovář

5

Ercolani

4

▼

Laird

3

▼

O'Connor

7

⚽

▼

Barlow

16

Bernard

6

Garner

8

⚽2

Greenwood

14

A

Traore

11

⚽

Chong

9

▼

Bohui

Manager: N. Butt

24'▲B. Williams←▼E. Laird

65'▲D. Bughai←▼J. Bohui

79'▲Arnau Martínez←▼L. OConnor

79'▲D. Levitt←▼A. Barlow

Manchester United U19 substitutes

15Williams17Bughai21Martínez19Levitt13Fojtíček22Ramazani23Galbraith

Manager: J. Magnin

70'▲L. Bueche←▼N. Maier

70'▲J. De Donno←▼S. Ballet

76'▲Breston Malula←▼S. Tokam

82'▲F. Rieder←▼T. Alonso

Young Boys U19 substitutes

17Bueche19Donno16Malula14Rieder12Blum15Andrade18Zbinden