Young Boys U19 0–4 Manchester City U19

Young Boys U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City U19

J. Heskey 69', 64'

K. Taylor 33', 18'

10/25/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Young Boys U1928%

×Draw20%

Manchester City U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchManchester City U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.23

Young Boys U19

1.60

Manchester City U19

2.23

Manchester City U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

1.71

creates per match

1.95

2.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.71

Manchester City U19

1.95

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.50

Manchester City U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Manchester City U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

Manchester City U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

48%

Young Boys U19 or Manchester City U19

80%

Draw or Manchester City U19

72%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

13%

Manchester City U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

80%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

47%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

22%

Manchester City U19 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City U19 2+ goals

65%

Manchester City U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Manchester City U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Manchester City U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.71 + Manchester City U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Manchester City U19 attack 1.95 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Manchester City U19 scores more

52%

Manchester City U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Manchester City U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Taylor↳ J. Ndala

33'

K. Taylor

46'

E. Lawrence← J. Ndala

55'

J. Lüthi← E. Maluvunu

55'

K. Thermoncy← T. Murith

55'

E. Rufener← L. Buljan

64'

J. Heskey↳ M. Alleyne

68'

Daniel Mendes← M. Deme

69'

J. Heskey↳ L. Samuel

71'

J. Bomo← H. Parra

77'

J. Adam← W. Dickson

77'

J. Oboavwoduo← M. Hendersson-Hall

77'

Mahamadou Susoho← J. Wright

90+2'

J. Bomo

90+1'

K. Noble← K. Taylor

Young

Manchester

1

Grant

4

A

Alleyne

5

Galvez

2

A

Samuel

3

Simpson-P

10

⚽2

▼

Taylor

6

▼

Wright

9

▼

Dickson

11

A

▼

Ndala

7

▼

Hendersso

8

⚽2

Heskey

1

Bajrami

4

Henchoz

2

▼

Murith

6

▼

Buljan

5

Seiler

3

Ademi

11

▼

Maluvunu

10

▼

Deme

8

Dema

7

Dalipi

9

▼

Parra

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

55'▲J. Lüthi←▼E. Maluvunu

55'▲K. Thermoncy←▼T. Murith

55'▲E. Rufener←▼L. Buljan

68'▲Daniel Mendes←▼M. Deme

71'▲J. Bomo←▼H. Parra

Young Boys U19 substitutes

17Lüthi12Thermoncy15Rufener16Mendes14Bomo13Wyss18Bracher

Manager: B. Barry-Murphy

46'▲E. Lawrence←▼J. Ndala

77'▲J. Adam←▼W. Dickson

77'▲J. Oboavwoduo←▼M. Hendersson-Hall

77'▲Mahamadou Susoho←▼J. Wright

90+1'▲K. Noble←▼K. Taylor

Manchester City U19 substitutes

18Lawrence16Adam17Oboavwoduo15Susoho14Noble13Murray-Jones12Carrington

Match Recap: Young Boys U19 vs Manchester City U19

Manchester City U19 beat Young Boys U19 4-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2023.

Goals: K. Taylor (18', 33'), J. Heskey (64', 69').

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.

Young Boys U19 vs Manchester City U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Young Boys U19 vs Manchester City U19