Manchester City U19 3–0 Young Boys U19

Manchester City U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Young Boys U19

M. Hendersson-Hall 44'

Mahamadou Susoho 35'

R. Heskey 9' (pen)

11/7/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Joie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Manchester City U1957%

×Draw20%

Young Boys U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester City U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.47

Manchester City U19

2.34

Young Boys U19

1.47

Manchester City U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

2.61

creates per match

1.33

1.61

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Manchester City U19

2.61

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Manchester City U19

1.61

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Manchester City U19 or draw

76%

Manchester City U19 or Young Boys U19

80%

Draw or Young Boys U19

43%

Winning margin

Manchester City U19 wins by 2+

35%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manchester City U19 1+ goals

90%

Manchester City U19 2+ goals

67%

Manchester City U19 3+ goals

41%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

77%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

43%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Manchester City U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City U19 at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City U19 attack 2.61 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.34

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Manchester City U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Manchester City U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Young Boys U19 scores more

24%

Manchester City U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Manchester City U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. HeskeyPenalty

21'

22'

29'

35'

41'

M. Hendersson

41'

M. Susoho

44'

M. Hendersson-Hall↳ T. Galvez

46'

M. Okeke← R. Heskey

46'

R. Wyss← J. Lüthi

46'

A. Ogouvide← M. Seiler

59'

J. Bomo

60'

T. Jost← E. Rufener

71'

J. Bracher← A. Bajrami

73'

K. Taylor

74'

J. Wright← Mahamadou Susoho

85'

J. Wright

Manchester

Young

1

▼

Bajrami

4

Henchoz

3

Murith

5

▼

2

11

7

6

8

▼

Rufener

10

▼

Dalipi

9

▼

1

4

2

5

A

3

10

8

6

⚽

▼

Susoho

7

⚽

Hendersso

9

Heskey

11

⚽

▼

Heskey

Manager: B. Barry-Murphy

46'▲M. Okeke←▼R. Heskey

74'▲J. Wright←▼Mahamadou Susoho

Manchester City U19 substitutes

16Okeke15Wright12Smith14Thomas13Grant17Naylor18Harrison

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

29'▲J. Bomo←▼L. Dalipi

46'▲R. Wyss←▼J. Lüthi

46'▲A. Ogouvide←▼M. Seiler

60'▲T. Jost←▼E. Rufener

71'▲J. Bracher←▼A. Bajrami

Young Boys U19 substitutes

12Bomo17Wyss13Ogouvide14Jost18Bracher15Mendes16Mouta

Match Recap: Manchester City U19 vs Young Boys U19

Manchester City U19 beat Young Boys U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2023.

Goals: R. Heskey (9' pen), Mahamadou Susoho (35'), M. Hendersson-Hall (44').

The match was played at Joie Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City U19 vs Young Boys U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Manchester City U19 vs Young Boys U19