Young Boys U19 3–0 Domžale U19: Result & Stats

Young Boys U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Domžale U19

E. Maluvunu 79', 62'

M. Chaiwa 27'

9/14/2022

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundStadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Young Boys U1938%

×Draw23%

Domžale U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchDomžale U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.63

Young Boys U19

1.60

Domžale U19

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.71

creates per match

0.75

2.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.71

Domžale U19

0.75

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.50

Domžale U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Domžale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

Domžale U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

61%

Young Boys U19 or Domžale U19

77%

Draw or Domžale U19

62%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

19%

Domžale U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

80%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

47%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

22%

Domžale U19 1+ goals

80%

Domžale U19 2+ goals

48%

Domžale U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Domžale U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Domžale U19 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.71 + Domžale U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Domžale U19 attack 0.75 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

Domžale U19 scores more

39%

Domžale U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Domžale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Chaiwa

29'

J. Fontana

54'

L. Topalović← N. Jovićević

62'

E. Maluvunu

63'

K. Krasniqi← S. Hunziker

68'

S. Henchoz

72'

A. Bukovec← J. Švigelj

72'

A. Tatarević← E. Saitoski

74'

L. Buljan← J. Kosovo

74'

J. Campbell← D. Piffero

78'

M. Barišič← M. Ilenčič

79'

E. Maluvunu

80'

A. Tatarevic

88'

J. Lüthi← E. Maluvunu

89'

J. Ficko

Young

Domžale

1

Strajnar

6

Belinc

2

▼

Ilenčič

5

▼

3

8

7

4

11

9

▼

Saitoski

10

▼

1

5

3

4

2

8

⚽

Chaiwa

10

▼

Hunziker

11

⚽2

▼

Maluvunu

7

Essay

6

▼

Kosovo

9

▼

Piffero

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

63'▲K. Krasniqi←▼S. Hunziker

74'▲L. Buljan←▼J. Kosovo

74'▲J. Campbell←▼D. Piffero

88'▲J. Lüthi←▼E. Maluvunu

Young Boys U19 substitutes

16Krasniqi12Buljan15Campbell17Lüthi14Ogouvide18Castro13Murith

Manager: D. Birjukov

54'▲L. Topalović←▼N. Jovićević

72'▲A. Bukovec←▼J. Švigelj

72'▲A. Tatarević←▼E. Saitoski

78'▲M. Barišič←▼M. Ilenčič

Domžale U19 substitutes

15Topalović18Bukovec16Tatarević13Barišič12Matičič17Lekše14Krebs

UEFA Youth League: Young Boys U19 3–0 Domžale U19

Young Boys U19 beat Domžale U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Chaiwa (27'), E. Maluvunu (62', 79').

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.

Young Boys U19 vs Domžale U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Young Boys U19 3–0 Domžale U19