Domžale U19 2–2 Young Boys U19: Result & Stats

Domžale U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Young Boys U19

E. Saitoski 49' (pen)

N. Jovićević 30'

K. Krasniqi 84'

D. Piffero 77'

10/5/2022

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundŠportni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Domžale U1941%

×Draw23%

Young Boys U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Domžale U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.54

Domžale U19

1.67

Young Boys U19

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Domžale U19

1.25

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Domžale U19

1.75

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Domžale U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Domžale U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Domžale U19 or draw

64%

Domžale U19 or Young Boys U19

77%

Draw or Young Boys U19

59%

Winning margin

Domžale U19 wins by 2+

21%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Domžale U19 1+ goals

81%

Domžale U19 2+ goals

50%

Domžale U19 3+ goals

23%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

79%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

45%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Domžale U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Domžale U19 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Domžale U19 attack 1.25 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Domžale U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Domžale U19 scores more

41%

level

23%

Young Boys U19 scores more

36%

Domžale U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Domžale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Belinc

30'

N. Jovićević

39'

D. Brumec

46'

D. Piffero← J. Campbell

49'

E. SaitoskiPenalty

52'

M. Chaiwa

58'

J. Svigelj

61'

J. Ficko

62'

L. Topalović← J. Belinc

62'

K. Krasniqi← J. Kosovo

68'

J. Lüthi← D. Borges

69'

T. R. Krebs

71'

J. Luthi

73'

L. Turudija

77'

D. Piffero

80'

L. Lekše← L. Turudija

83'

A. Bukovec← E. Saitoski

83'

A. Tatarević← N. Jovićević

84'

K. Krasniqi

85'

L. Buljan← E. Maluvunu

Domžale

Young

1

5

3

2

4

10

11

▼

Maluvunu

7

▼

Borges

8

Essay

6

▼

Kosovo

9

▼

Campbell

1

Strajnar

4

▼

2

5

3

7

8

▼

Turudija

6

Ficko

11

Perc

9

⚽

▼

Saitoski

10

⚽

▼

Jovićević

Manager: D. Birjukov

62'▲L. Topalović←▼J. Belinc

80'▲L. Lekše←▼L. Turudija

83'▲A. Bukovec←▼E. Saitoski

83'▲A. Tatarević←▼N. Jovićević

Domžale U19 substitutes

15Topalović17Lekše18Bukovec16Tatarević13Barišič14Guberac12Štiftar

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

46'▲D. Piffero←▼J. Campbell

62'▲K. Krasniqi←▼J. Kosovo

68'▲J. Lüthi←▼D. Borges

85'▲L. Buljan←▼E. Maluvunu

Young Boys U19 substitutes

13Piffero15Krasniqi17Lüthi16Buljan14Henchoz12Murith18Martinovic