Young Boys U19 2–4 Atalanta U19: Result & Stats

Young Boys U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Atalanta U19

E. Tsimba 20'

J. Lüthi 3'

C. Fiogbe 72' (pen)

L. Riccio 69', 62', 33'

11/26/2024

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 5Sportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Young Boys U1936%

×Draw21%

Atalanta U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Boys U19Expected goals in this matchAtalanta U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

2.10

Young Boys U19

1.91

Atalanta U19

2.10

Atalanta U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.71

creates per match

1.70

2.50

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Young Boys U19

1.71

Atalanta U19

1.70

allows per match

Young Boys U19

2.50

Atalanta U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys U19 ↓

Atalanta U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Young Boys U19 or draw

57%

Young Boys U19 or Atalanta U19

79%

Draw or Atalanta U19

64%

Winning margin

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

19%

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

85%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

57%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

30%

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

88%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

62%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Atalanta U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys U19 attack 1.71 + Atalanta U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.91

Atalanta U19 attack 1.70 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Young Boys U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Atalanta U19 scores more

43%

Atalanta U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atalanta U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Lüthi↳ L. Damnjanović

20'

E. Tsimba↳ T. Jost

33'

L. Riccio↳ F. Steffanoni

46'

F. Simonetto← S. Ghezzi

53'

J. Bomo

56'

J. Bomo

56'

J. Bomo

62'

L. Riccio↳ F. Simonetto

63'

N. Urbano← E. Tsimba

63'

H. Camara← F. Mencaraglia

63'

A. Bonanomi← N. Baldo

69'

L. Riccio↳ C. Fiogbe

70'

N. Tschanz← E. Rufener

70'

M. Bellino← J. Lüthi

70'

L. Macumi← E. Etoski

72'

C. FiogbePenalty

77'

R. Isa← A. Ademi

78'

J. Idele

78'

L. Gobbo← J. Idele

79'

M. Arrigoni← L. Riccio

81'

T. Jost

Young

Atalanta

12

Zanchi

19

Tavanti

24

Bilać

32

▼

Idele

8

⚽3

▼

Riccio

5

▼

Ghezzi

14

▼

Mencaragl

25

A

Steffanon

46

⚽A

Fiogbe

21

▼

23

1

5

3

▼

Ademi

4

A

Damnjanov

2

Souza

6

Bomo

10

▼

Rufener

8

A

Jost

7

▼

Etoski

11

⚽

▼

Lüthi

9

⚽

▼

Tsimba

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

63'▲N. Urbano←▼E. Tsimba

70'▲N. Tschanz←▼E. Rufener

70'▲M. Bellino←▼J. Lüthi

70'▲L. Macumi←▼E. Etoski

77'▲R. Isa←▼A. Ademi

Young Boys U19 substitutes

19Urbano15Tschanz14Bellino13Macumi16Isa18Cherif12Loboda20Raicevic17Wyss

Manager: G. Bosi

46'▲F. Simonetto←▼S. Ghezzi

63'▲H. Camara←▼F. Mencaraglia

63'▲A. Bonanomi←▼N. Baldo

78'▲L. Gobbo←▼J. Idele

79'▲M. Arrigoni←▼L. Riccio

Atalanta U19 substitutes

3Simonetto30Camara10Bonanomi2Gobbo28Arrigoni1Torriani13Isoa22Sala48Bono