Atalanta U19 3–0 Young Boys U19: Result & Stats

Atalanta U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Young Boys U19

S. Lozza 55'

S. Omar 41'

A. Oliveri 20'

9/29/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Centro Sportivo Bortolotti 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atalanta U1950%

×Draw23%

Young Boys U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atalanta U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.27

Atalanta U19

1.82

Young Boys U19

1.27

Atalanta U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.56

creates per match

1.33

1.22

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Atalanta U19

1.56

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Atalanta U19

1.22

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atalanta U19 or draw

73%

Atalanta U19 or Young Boys U19

77%

Draw or Young Boys U19

50%

Winning margin

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

28%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

84%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

54%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

27%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

72%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

36%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U19 attack 1.56 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.82

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atalanta U19 scores more

50%

level

23%

Young Boys U19 scores more

27%

Atalanta U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atalanta U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Oliveri

34'

A. Ceresoli

37'

M. Berisha

41'

S. Omar↳ S. Lozza

55'

S. Lozza↳ S. Omar

57'

R. Beqaj← Y. Jungo

57'

J. Rhodes← J. Fontana

62'

T. De Nipoti← S. Lozza

62'

S. Panada← F. Zuccon

62'

J. Bomo← M. Berisha

63'

G. Berto

78'

M. Chiwisa← A. Sidibe

79'

J. F. Bomo

80'

A. Ogouvide← J. Bichsel

80'

T. Murith← N. Jakob

85'

A. Fisic← S. Omar

85'

I. Regonesi← A. Ceresoli

Atalanta

Young

1

Laidani

20

Amenda

19

▼

Bichsel

5

Crnovrsan

3

▼

Fontana

11

▼

Jungo

17

Donno

8

▼

Jakob

6

Essay

9

Appiah

10

▼

24

5

33

3

▼

Ceresoli

32

Giovane

4

▼

Zuccon

14

⚽

Oliveri

30

Berto

8

▼

Sidibe

27

⚽A

▼

Omar

39

⚽A

▼

Lozza

Manager: M. Brambilla

62'▲T. De Nipoti←▼S. Lozza

62'▲S. Panada←▼F. Zuccon

78'▲M. Chiwisa←▼A. Sidibe

85'▲A. Fisic←▼S. Omar

85'▲I. Regonesi←▼A. Ceresoli

Atalanta U19 substitutes

23Nipoti21Panada18Chiwisa19Fisic28Regonesi2Lungo13Bertini

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

57'▲R. Beqaj←▼Y. Jungo

57'▲J. Rhodes←▼J. Fontana

62'▲J. Bomo←▼M. Berisha

80'▲A. Ogouvide←▼J. Bichsel

80'▲T. Murith←▼N. Jakob

Young Boys U19 substitutes

13Beqaj7Rhodes14Bomo2Ogouvide12Murith18Bajrami15Maluvunu

UEFA Youth League: Atalanta U19 3–0 Young Boys U19

Atalanta U19 beat Young Boys U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 29, 2021.

Goals: A. Oliveri (20'), S. Omar (41'), S. Lozza (55').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Bortolotti 1 in Zingonia Ciserano.

Atalanta U19 vs Young Boys U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Atalanta U19 3–0 Young Boys U19