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Young Boys II vs Olympique de Genève — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Young Boys II
Young Boys II
FT
7 – 0
Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
9/26/20201. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Young Boys II83%
×Draw11%
Olympique de Genève6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Boys II
3.11
Olympique de Genève
0.75

Young Boys II creates 315% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Young Boys II
4.36
Olympique de Genève
0.43

allows per match

Young Boys II
1.07
Olympique de Genève
1.86

finishing

Young Boys II+0.00on par
Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys II ↓

Olympique de Genève →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Young Boys II or draw
94%
Young Boys II or Olympique de Genève
89%
Draw or Olympique de Genève
17%

Winning margin

Young Boys II wins by 2+
64%
Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Young Boys II 1+ goals
95%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
81%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
58%
Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
53%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
17%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Young Boys II (draw refunded)
93%
Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys II at home — creates 4.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys II attack 4.36 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 3.11

Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + Young Boys II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Young Boys II scores more
83%
level
11%
Olympique de Genève scores more
6%

Young Boys II at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Boys II vs Olympique de Genève

Young Boys II beat Olympique de Genève 7-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.