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Olympique de Genève vs Young Boys II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
CANC
00:00
Young Boys II
Young Boys II
4/18/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Centre sportif de Varembé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Olympique de Genève29%
×Draw21%
Young Boys II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique de Genève
1.52
Young Boys II
2.06

Young Boys II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Olympique de Genève
1.38
Young Boys II
2.58

allows per match

Olympique de Genève
1.54
Young Boys II
1.67

finishing

Olympique de Genève+0.00on par
Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique de Genève ↓

Young Boys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Olympique de Genève or draw
50%
Olympique de Genève or Young Boys II
79%
Draw or Young Boys II
71%

Winning margin

Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
13%
Young Boys II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
78%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
45%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
20%
Young Boys II 1+ goals
87%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
61%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
36%
Young Boys II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique de Genève at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique de Genève attack 1.38 + Young Boys II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Young Boys II attack 2.58 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olympique de Genève scores more
29%
level
21%
Young Boys II scores more
50%

Young Boys II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olympique de Genève vs Young Boys II — Match Preview

Olympique de Genève face Young Boys II on April 18, 2021 in this 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Olympique de Genève host Young Boys II at Centre sportif de Varembé.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.