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Young Boys II vs Lugano II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Young Boys II
Young Boys II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lugano II
Lugano II
11/16/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 17Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Young Boys II51%
×Draw21%
Lugano II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Boys II
2.05
Lugano II
1.48

Young Boys II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Young Boys II
1.92
Lugano II
1.39

allows per match

Young Boys II
1.56
Lugano II
2.18

finishing

Young Boys II+0.00on par
Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys II ↓

Lugano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Young Boys II or draw
72%
Young Boys II or Lugano II
79%
Draw or Lugano II
49%

Winning margin

Young Boys II wins by 2+
29%
Lugano II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Young Boys II 1+ goals
87%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
61%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
33%
Lugano II 1+ goals
77%
Lugano II 2+ goals
43%
Lugano II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Young Boys II (draw refunded)
64%
Lugano II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys II attack 1.92 + Lugano II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.05

Lugano II attack 1.39 + Young Boys II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Young Boys II scores more
51%
level
21%
Lugano II scores more
28%

Young Boys II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Young Boys II 3–0 Lugano II

Young Boys II beat Lugano II 3-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.