Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lugano II vs Young Boys II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Lugano II
Lugano II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Young Boys II
Young Boys II
5/24/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 34Centro Sportivo Al Maglio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lugano II43%
×Draw24%
Young Boys II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugano II
1.67
Young Boys II
1.46

Lugano II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lugano II
1.37
Young Boys II
1.35

allows per match

Lugano II
1.57
Young Boys II
1.96

finishing

Lugano II+0.00on par
Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano II ↓

Young Boys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lugano II or draw
66%
Lugano II or Young Boys II
76%
Draw or Young Boys II
57%

Winning margin

Lugano II wins by 2+
22%
Young Boys II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lugano II 1+ goals
81%
Lugano II 2+ goals
50%
Lugano II 3+ goals
23%
Young Boys II 1+ goals
77%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
43%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lugano II (draw refunded)
56%
Young Boys II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano II attack 1.37 + Young Boys II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.67

Young Boys II attack 1.35 + Lugano II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lugano II scores more
43%
level
24%
Young Boys II scores more
34%

Lugano II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lugano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Lugano II 2–0 Young Boys II

Lugano II beat Young Boys II 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Al Maglio in Canobbio.