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Young Boys II vs Brühl — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Young Boys II
Young Boys II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brühl
Brühl
11/25/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 18Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Young Boys II46%
×Draw22%
Brühl32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Boys II
1.94
Brühl
1.58

Young Boys II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 105 away

creates per match

Young Boys II
1.92
Brühl
1.59

allows per match

Young Boys II
1.56
Brühl
1.95

finishing

Young Boys II+0.00on par
Brühl+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Boys II ↓

Brühl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Young Boys II or draw
68%
Young Boys II or Brühl
78%
Draw or Brühl
54%

Winning margin

Young Boys II wins by 2+
26%
Brühl wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Young Boys II 1+ goals
86%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
58%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
30%
Brühl 1+ goals
79%
Brühl 2+ goals
47%
Brühl 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Young Boys II (draw refunded)
59%
Brühl (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Boys II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

Brühl away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.95 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Boys II attack 1.92 + Brühl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.94

Brühl attack 1.59 + Young Boys II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Young Boys II scores more
46%
level
22%
Brühl scores more
32%

Young Boys II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Young Boys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Young Boys II 3–0 Brühl

Young Boys II beat Brühl 3-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.