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Brühl vs Young Boys II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Brühl
Brühl
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Young Boys II
Young Boys II
J. Wornhard 81'
F. Tsimba 80', 65'
8/21/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 3Paul-Grüninger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Brühl49%
×Draw22%
Young Boys II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brühl
1.91
Young Boys II
1.43

Brühl creates 34% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 85 away

creates per match

Brühl
1.86
Young Boys II
1.35

allows per match

Brühl
1.51
Young Boys II
1.96

finishing

Brühl+0.00on par
Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brühl ↓

Young Boys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Brühl or draw
71%
Brühl or Young Boys II
78%
Draw or Young Boys II
51%

Winning margin

Brühl wins by 2+
27%
Young Boys II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brühl 1+ goals
85%
Brühl 2+ goals
57%
Brühl 3+ goals
30%
Young Boys II 1+ goals
76%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
42%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brühl (draw refunded)
63%
Young Boys II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brühl at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.51 · 104 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brühl attack 1.86 + Young Boys II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Young Boys II attack 1.35 + Brühl defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brühl scores more
49%
level
22%
Young Boys II scores more
29%

Brühl at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brühl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
S. Cicek
42'
B. T. Freimann
63'
T. Jost← T. Jost
64'
E. Etoski← E. Etoski
65'
F. Tsimba
66'
F. Saglam← L. Zeqiri
66'
J. Rans← J. Rans
76'
C. Pahud← C. Pahud
76'
C. Holenstein← J. Lovakovic
79'
R. Smith
80'
F. Tsimba
81'
J. Wornhard
85'
S. Kucani← M. Mettler
85'
D. Piffero← D. Piffero
90+2'
M. Cavar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brühl vs Young Boys II

Young Boys II beat Brühl 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 21, 2024.

Goals: F. Tsimba (65', 80'), J. Wornhard (81').

The match was played at Paul-Grüninger-Stadion in St. Gallen.