Young Apostles 1–2 Hearts of Oak: Result & Stats

Young Apostles

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hearts of Oak

10/13/2024

Premier League · Round 6Wenchi Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Young Apostles45%

×Draw31%

Hearts of Oak23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young ApostlesExpected goals in this matchHearts of Oak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.73

Young Apostles

1.14

Hearts of Oak

0.73

Young Apostles creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 108 away

1.41

creates per match

0.72

0.74

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Young Apostles

1.41

Hearts of Oak

0.72

allows per match

Young Apostles

0.74

Hearts of Oak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Apostles+0.00on par

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Apostles ↓

Hearts of Oak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Young Apostles or draw

77%

Young Apostles or Hearts of Oak

69%

Draw or Hearts of Oak

55%

Winning margin

Young Apostles wins by 2+

19%

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Young Apostles 1+ goals

68%

Young Apostles 2+ goals

32%

Young Apostles 3+ goals

11%

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

52%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

17%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Young Apostles (draw refunded)

66%

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Apostles at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Apostles attack 1.41 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Young Apostles defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Young Apostles scores more

45%

level

31%

Hearts of Oak scores more

23%

Young Apostles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Young Apostles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff