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Hearts of Oak vs Young Apostles — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Young Apostles
Young Apostles
4/5/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hearts of Oak57%
×Draw29%
Young Apostles15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.33
Young Apostles
0.52

Hearts of Oak creates 156% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.25
Young Apostles
0.38

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.66
Young Apostles
1.41

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Young Apostles+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Young Apostles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
85%
Hearts of Oak or Young Apostles
71%
Draw or Young Apostles
43%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
28%
Young Apostles wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
74%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
38%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
15%
Young Apostles 1+ goals
41%
Young Apostles 2+ goals
10%
Young Apostles 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
80%
Young Apostles (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Young Apostles away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Young Apostles defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Young Apostles attack 0.38 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
57%
level
29%
Young Apostles scores more
15%

Hearts of Oak at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hearts of Oak 1–0 Young Apostles

Hearts of Oak beat Young Apostles 1-0 in Premier League on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.