Young Apostles 3–2 Aduana Stars: Result & Stats

Young Apostles

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Aduana Stars

9/29/2024

Premier League · Round 4Wenchi Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Young Apostles51%

×Draw28%

Aduana Stars21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young ApostlesExpected goals in this matchAduana Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.74

Young Apostles

1.33

Aduana Stars

0.74

Young Apostles creates 80% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 110 away

1.41

creates per match

0.75

0.74

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Young Apostles

1.41

Aduana Stars

0.75

allows per match

Young Apostles

0.74

Aduana Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Apostles+0.00on par

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Apostles ↓

Aduana Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Young Apostles or draw

79%

Young Apostles or Aduana Stars

72%

Draw or Aduana Stars

49%

Winning margin

Young Apostles wins by 2+

24%

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Young Apostles 1+ goals

74%

Young Apostles 2+ goals

38%

Young Apostles 3+ goals

15%

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

52%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

17%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Young Apostles (draw refunded)

71%

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Apostles at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Apostles attack 1.41 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Young Apostles defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Young Apostles scores more

51%

level

28%

Aduana Stars scores more

21%

Young Apostles at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Young Apostles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff