Aduana Stars 2–2 Young Apostles: Result & Stats

Aduana Stars

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Young Apostles

4/2/2025

Premier League · Round 21Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aduana Stars60%

×Draw27%

Young Apostles13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aduana StarsExpected goals in this matchYoung Apostles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.48

Aduana Stars

1.41

Young Apostles

0.48

Aduana Stars creates 194% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 34 away

1.41

creates per match

0.38

0.58

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Aduana Stars

1.41

Young Apostles

0.38

allows per match

Aduana Stars

0.58

Young Apostles

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Young Apostles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Young Apostles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw

87%

Aduana Stars or Young Apostles

73%

Draw or Young Apostles

40%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

31%

Young Apostles wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

76%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

41%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

17%

Young Apostles 1+ goals

38%

Young Apostles 2+ goals

8%

Young Apostles 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

83%

Young Apostles (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.58 · 108 matches

Young Apostles away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.41 + Young Apostles defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Young Apostles attack 0.38 + Aduana Stars defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Aduana Stars scores more

60%

level

27%

Young Apostles scores more

13%

Aduana Stars at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Young Apostles

Aduana Stars and Young Apostles drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.

Aduana Stars vs Young Apostles — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Young Apostles