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Young Africans vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
12/22/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Young Africans64%
×Draw23%
Tanzania Prisons13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
1.75
Tanzania Prisons
0.64

Young Africans creates 173% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 114 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.27
Tanzania Prisons
0.75

allows per match

Young Africans
0.52
Tanzania Prisons
1.24

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
87%
Young Africans or Tanzania Prisons
77%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
36%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
37%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
83%
Young Africans 2+ goals
52%
Young Africans 3+ goals
25%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
47%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
14%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
83%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.27 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.75 + Young Africans defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Young Africans scores more
64%
level
23%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
13%

Young Africans at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Young Africans 4–0 Tanzania Prisons

Young Africans beat Tanzania Prisons 4-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.