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Tanzania Prisons vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Young Africans
Young Africans
6/18/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Tanzania Prisons20%
×Draw29%
Young Africans51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
0.70
Young Africans
1.31

Young Africans creates 87% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 112 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.95
Young Africans
1.60

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.02
Young Africans
0.46

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
49%
Tanzania Prisons or Young Africans
71%
Draw or Young Africans
80%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
6%
Young Africans wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
50%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
16%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
3%
Young Africans 1+ goals
73%
Young Africans 2+ goals
38%
Young Africans 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
28%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.46 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.95 + Young Africans defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.70

Young Africans attack 1.60 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
20%
level
29%
Young Africans scores more
51%

Young Africans at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanzania Prisons vs Young Africans

Young Africans beat Tanzania Prisons 5-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.