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Young Africans vs Rivers United — CAF Champions League 2019

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rivers United
Rivers United
9/12/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundBenjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Young Africans77%
×Draw18%
Rivers United5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
1.93
Rivers United
0.29

Young Africans creates 566% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.19
Rivers United
0.11

allows per match

Young Africans
0.48
Rivers United
1.67

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
95%
Young Africans or Rivers United
82%
Draw or Rivers United
23%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
50%
Rivers United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
85%
Young Africans 2+ goals
57%
Young Africans 3+ goals
30%
Rivers United 1+ goals
25%
Rivers United 2+ goals
3%
Rivers United 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
94%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.19 + Rivers United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Rivers United attack 0.11 + Young Africans defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Young Africans scores more
77%
level
18%
Rivers United scores more
5%

Young Africans at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Young Africans 0–1 Rivers United

Rivers United beat Young Africans 1-0 in CAF Champions League on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.