Rivers United 1–0 Young Africans: Result & Stats

Rivers United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Young Africans

9/19/2021

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundAdokiye Amiesimaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rivers United36%

×Draw29%

Young Africans34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rivers UnitedExpected goals in this matchYoung Africans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.08

Rivers United

1.12

Young Africans

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.44

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Rivers United

1.44

Young Africans

1.05

allows per match

Rivers United

1.11

Young Africans

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par

Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Young Africans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw

66%

Rivers United or Young Africans

71%

Draw or Young Africans

64%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+

15%

Young Africans wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals

67%

Rivers United 2+ goals

31%

Rivers United 3+ goals

10%

Young Africans 1+ goals

66%

Young Africans 2+ goals

29%

Young Africans 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)

51%

Young Africans (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.44 + Young Africans defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.12

Young Africans attack 1.05 + Rivers United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rivers United scores more

36%

level

29%

Young Africans scores more

34%

Rivers United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff