Young Africans 3–0 Pamba Jiji: Result & Stats

Young Africans

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pamba Jiji

M. Yahya 90'

M. Nzengeli 62'

L. Kouma 45'

9/24/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 2Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Young Africans74%

×Draw18%

Pamba Jiji8%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young AfricansExpected goals in this matchPamba Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.52

Young Africans

2.09

Pamba Jiji

0.52

Young Africans creates 302% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

2.75

creates per match

0.65

0.39

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Young Africans

2.75

Pamba Jiji

0.65

allows per match

Young Africans

0.39

Pamba Jiji

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Pamba Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw

92%

Young Africans or Pamba Jiji

82%

Draw or Pamba Jiji

26%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+

49%

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals

88%

Young Africans 2+ goals

62%

Young Africans 3+ goals

34%

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

41%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

10%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)

90%

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.39 · 28 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.75 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Pamba Jiji attack 0.65 + Young Africans defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Young Africans scores more

74%

level

18%

Pamba Jiji scores more

8%

Young Africans at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

L. Kouma↳ E. John

46'

H. Lutonja← N. Ibrahim

56'

M. Doumbia← C. Ecua

56'

A. Andabwile← B. Conte

62'

M. Nzengeli↳ M. Hussein

64'

M. Yahya← L. Kouma

66'

J. Nakibinge← A. Kheri

66'

S. Nahimana← H. Jafari

70'

P. Dube← A. Boyeli

70'

P. Zouzoua← E. John

80'

M. Samamba←

90'

M. Yahya↳ P. Zouzoua

Young

Pamba

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

A

▼

⚽

A

▼

▼

Manager: Valdemar Soares Goncalves Pedro

56'▲M. Doumbia←▼C. Ecua

56'▲A. Andabwile←▼B. Conte

64'▲M. Yahya←▼L. Kouma

70'▲P. Dube←▼A. Boyeli

70'▲P. Zouzoua←▼E. John

Young Africans substitutes

DoumbiaYahyaMsharyBokaChikolaDubeMohammedZouzouaAndabwile

46'▲H. Lutonja←▼N. Ibrahim

66'▲J. Nakibinge←▼A. Kheri

66'▲S. Nahimana←▼H. Jafari

80'▲M. Samamba←▼—

Pamba Jiji substitutes

AntwiCharlesMasoudNakibingeNahimanaMangaloRichardSamambaLutonja