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Young Africans vs Pamba Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
4 – 0
Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
10/3/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 7Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Young Africans76%
×Draw17%
Pamba Jiji7%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
2.17
Pamba Jiji
0.48

Young Africans creates 352% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.79
Pamba Jiji
0.58

allows per match

Young Africans
0.38
Pamba Jiji
1.54

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Pamba Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
93%
Young Africans or Pamba Jiji
83%
Draw or Pamba Jiji
24%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
51%
Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
89%
Young Africans 2+ goals
64%
Young Africans 3+ goals
36%
Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
38%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
8%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
92%
Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.38 · 29 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.79 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.17

Pamba Jiji attack 0.58 + Young Africans defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Young Africans scores more
76%
level
17%
Pamba Jiji scores more
7%

Young Africans at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Africans vs Pamba Jiji

Young Africans beat Pamba Jiji 4-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.