Young Africans vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Young Africans78%
Mtibwa Sugar6%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Young Africans creates 387% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No68
- Yes32
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Young Africans ↓
Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Young Africans at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.37 · 27 matches
Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Young Africans attack 2.70 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.19
Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.52 + Young Africans defence 0.37 → ÷2 → 0.45
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 78%?"
Young Africans at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 78% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Young Africans
Simba
Azam
Singida Black Stars
Tabora United
JKT Tanzania
Pamba Jiji
Coastal Union
Dodoma Jiji
Namungo
Mashujaa
Fountain Gate
Tanzania Prisons
Mbeya CityMtibwa Sugar
KMCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Young Africans host Mtibwa Sugar on Tuesday, 28 October 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Ligi kuu Bara 2025/2026 season.
Young Africans 2 – 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Young Africans beat Mtibwa Sugar 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 28, 2025.
Goals: M. Hussein (39'), C. Ecua (83').
The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar es Salaam.