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Young Africans vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
M. Makudubela 86'
K. Musonda 76'
S. Aziz Ki 70', 45+1' (pen)
S. Karihe 90+5'
12/16/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 12Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Young Africans77%
×Draw16%
Mtibwa Sugar6%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
2.22
Mtibwa Sugar
0.47

Young Africans creates 372% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.79
Mtibwa Sugar
0.55

allows per match

Young Africans
0.38
Mtibwa Sugar
1.65

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
94%
Young Africans or Mtibwa Sugar
84%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
23%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
53%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
89%
Young Africans 2+ goals
65%
Young Africans 3+ goals
38%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
37%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
8%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
92%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.38 · 29 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.79 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.22

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.55 + Young Africans defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Young Africans scores more
77%
level
16%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
6%

Young Africans at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
S. Aziz KiPenalty
70'
S. Aziz Ki↳ K. Shomari
76'
K. Musonda↳ D. Moloko
86'
M. Makudubela
90+5'
S. Karihe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Young Africans 4 – 1 Mtibwa Sugar

Young Africans beat Mtibwa Sugar 4-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 16, 2023.

Goals: S. Aziz Ki (45+1' pen, 70'), K. Musonda (76'), M. Makudubela (86'), S. Karihe (90+5').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.