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Young Africans vs Medeama — CAF Champions League 2019

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Medeama
Medeama
M. Yahya 66'
B. Mwamnyeto 61'
P. Zouzoua 33'
12/20/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group D - 4Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Young Africans82%
×Draw14%
Medeama4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
2.29
Medeama
0.34

Young Africans creates 574% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.19
Medeama
0.20

allows per match

Young Africans
0.48
Medeama
2.40

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
96%
Young Africans or Medeama
86%
Draw or Medeama
18%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
58%
Medeama wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
90%
Young Africans 2+ goals
66%
Young Africans 3+ goals
40%
Medeama 1+ goals
29%
Medeama 2+ goals
5%
Medeama 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
95%
Medeama (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.19 + Medeama defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.29

Medeama attack 0.20 + Young Africans defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Young Africans scores more
82%
level
14%
Medeama scores more
4%

Young Africans at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
K. AttohoulaYoung AfricansYoung Africans · D
8.3

Match Events

6'
Manuel Mantey
33'
P. Zouzoua↳ K. Aucho
45+5'
Jonathan Sowah
45+1'
J. Agyemang← J. Ourega
45+1'
A. Fordjour← K. Mahachi
45+1'
D. Lomotey← N. Babil
61'
B. Mwamnyeto↳ K. Musonda
64'
Emmanuel Cudjoe
66'
M. Yahya↳ A. Ki
72'
B. Bature← D. Fordjour
72'
K. Asmah← K. Amoako
80'
S. Abubakar← P. Zouzoua
80'
H. Konkoni← K. Musonda
84'
M. Makudubela← A. Ki
90'
Jonathan Sowah
90'
Jonathan Sowah
90'
F. Mussa← N. Kibabage
90+1'
J. Moloko← M. Nzengeli

Possession

62%Young

Shots

26Young

Pass accuracy

53%Young

Statistics

YoungMedeama
Overview
62%Possession38%
26Total Shots8
11Corners0
19Fouls9
Shots
26Total Shots8
7On Target3
13Off Target3
6Blocked2
13Inside Box7
13Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
529Total Passes323
480Accurate Passes265
91%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
19Fouls9
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides6

Match Recap: Young Africans vs Medeama

Young Africans beat Medeama 3-0 in CAF Champions League on December 20, 2023.

Goals: P. Zouzoua (33'), B. Mwamnyeto (61'), M. Yahya (66').

Young Africans controlled possession (62%) and registered 26 shots to 8.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.