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Medeama vs Young Africans — CAF Champions League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Young Africans
Young Africans
J. Sowah 27' (pen)
P. Zouzoua 36'
12/8/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group D - 3Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Medeama39%
×Draw30%
Young Africans30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.10
Young Africans
0.93

Medeama creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.40
Young Africans
1.05

allows per match

Medeama
0.80
Young Africans
0.80

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
70%
Medeama or Young Africans
70%
Draw or Young Africans
61%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
16%
Young Africans wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
67%
Medeama 2+ goals
30%
Medeama 3+ goals
10%
Young Africans 1+ goals
61%
Young Africans 2+ goals
24%
Young Africans 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
56%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.40 + Young Africans defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Young Africans attack 1.05 + Medeama defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Medeama scores more
39%
level
30%
Young Africans scores more
30%

Medeama at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
P. ZouzouaYoung AfricansYoung Africans · M
7.9

Match Events

25'
Dickson Job
27'
J. SowahPenalty
36'
P. Zouzoua
41'
Maxi Mpia Nzengeli
43'
Kamaradini Mamudu
45+2'
Kwadwo Amoako
45+4'
K. Asmah← N. Abdulai
60'
J. Agyemang← D. Lomotey
60'
G. Dzakpasu← M. Mantey
62'
A. Ki← C. Mzize
81'
N. Babil← J. Agyemang
82'
Ibrahim Hamad Bacca
85'
H. Konkoni← K. Musonda

Possession

49%Medeama

Shots

9Medeama

Pass accuracy

50%Medeama

Statistics

MedeamaYoung
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots13
4Corners4
9Fouls22
Shots
9Total Shots13
1On Target6
5Off Target3
3Blocked4
6Inside Box5
3Outside Box8
Passing
49%Possession51%
348Total Passes365
261Accurate Passes278
75%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls22
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides3

CAF Champions League: Medeama 1–1 Young Africans

Medeama and Young Africans drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on December 8, 2023.

Goals: J. Sowah (27' pen), P. Zouzoua (36').

Young Africans controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.