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Young Africans vs FAR Rabat — CAF Champions League 2019

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
P. Dube 58'
11/22/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 1Amaan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Young Africans59%
×Draw25%
FAR Rabat16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
1.59
FAR Rabat
0.68

Young Africans creates 134% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.19
FAR Rabat
0.88

allows per match

Young Africans
0.48
FAR Rabat
1.00

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
84%
Young Africans or FAR Rabat
75%
Draw or FAR Rabat
41%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
32%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
80%
Young Africans 2+ goals
47%
Young Africans 3+ goals
21%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
49%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
15%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
79%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.19 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

FAR Rabat attack 0.88 + Young Africans defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Young Africans scores more
59%
level
25%
FAR Rabat scores more
16%

Young Africans at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
A. TagnaoutiFAR RabatFAR Rabat · G
9.9

Match Events

32'
Maxi Mpia Nzengeli
46'
H. Khabba← R. Slim
46'
A. Hadraf← K. Ouarkhane Alt
57'
Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti
57'
E. John← C. Ecua
58'
P. Dube↳ M. Yahya
64'
Mudathir Yahya
66'
L. Kouma← M. Yahya
68'
S. El Bouchqali← A. Hammoudan
80'
Hamza Khabba
82'
A. Habbassi← Z. Derrag
83'
A. Boyeli← P. Dube
84'
B. Conte← M. Nzengeli
90+2'
M. Bouriga← Y. El Fahli

Possession

51%Young

Shots

15Young

Pass accuracy

50%Young

Statistics

YoungFAR
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots5
7Corners3
17Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots5
9On Target1
4Off Target2
2Blocked2
11Inside Box4
4Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
369Total Passes364
288Accurate Passes283
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
Discipline
17Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

CAF Champions League: Young Africans 1–0 FAR Rabat

Young Africans beat FAR Rabat 1-0 in CAF Champions League on November 22, 2025.

Goals: P. Dube (58').

Young Africans controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Amaan Stadium in Zanzibar City.