FAR Rabat 1–0 Young Africans: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Young Africans

A. Bach 85'

2/7/2026

CAF Champions League · Round 5Stade Olympique de Rabat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FAR Rabat50%

×Draw28%

Young Africans22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchYoung Africans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.78

FAR Rabat

1.34

Young Africans

0.78

FAR Rabat creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

1.88

creates per match

1.05

0.50

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.88

Young Africans

1.05

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.50

Young Africans

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Young Africans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

78%

FAR Rabat or Young Africans

72%

Draw or Young Africans

50%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

24%

Young Africans wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

74%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

39%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

15%

Young Africans 1+ goals

54%

Young Africans 2+ goals

18%

Young Africans 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

70%

Young Africans (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Young Africans defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Young Africans attack 1.05 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

50%

level

28%

Young Africans scores more

22%

FAR Rabat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Bach

FAR Rabat · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

Mohamed Damaro

34'

Mohamed Rabie Hrimat

46'

I. P. Mwenda← M. Damaro

53'

55'

56'

60'

62'

65'

K. Ouarkhane Alt← A. Hadraf

67'

C. Boka← M. Hussein

67'

P. Dube← Depu

69'

J. E. El Khfiyef← Y. Abdelhamid

78'

A. Hammoudan← Z. Derrag

81'

C. Mzize← P. Zouzoua

85'

A. Bach

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FARYoung

Overview

72%Possession28%

19Total Shots5

1.89Expected Goals (xG)0.27

8Corners1

10Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots5

4On Target1

6Off Target3

9Blocked1

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

607Total Passes254

490Accurate Passes163

81%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.29Goals Prevented-0.29

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1