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Young Africans vs CR Belouizdad — CAF Champions League 2019

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
2/24/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group D - 5Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Young Africans61%
×Draw24%
CR Belouizdad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
1.66
CR Belouizdad
0.67

Young Africans creates 148% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.19
CR Belouizdad
0.85

allows per match

Young Africans
0.48
CR Belouizdad
1.12

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
CR Belouizdad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

CR Belouizdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
85%
Young Africans or CR Belouizdad
76%
Draw or CR Belouizdad
39%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
34%
CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
81%
Young Africans 2+ goals
49%
Young Africans 3+ goals
23%
CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
49%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
15%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
81%
CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

CR Belouizdad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.19 + CR Belouizdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

CR Belouizdad attack 0.85 + Young Africans defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Young Africans scores more
61%
level
24%
CR Belouizdad scores more
15%

Young Africans at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Africans vs CR Belouizdad

Young Africans beat CR Belouizdad 4-0 in CAF Champions League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.