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CR Belouizdad vs Young Africans — CAF Champions League 2019

CR Belouizdad
CR Belouizdad
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Young Africans
Young Africans
11/24/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group D - 1Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

CR Belouizdad50%
×Draw28%
Young Africans23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CR Belouizdad
1.38
Young Africans
0.84

CR Belouizdad creates 64% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

creates per match

CR Belouizdad
1.96
Young Africans
1.05

allows per match

CR Belouizdad
0.63
Young Africans
0.80

finishing

CR Belouizdad+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Belouizdad ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CR Belouizdad or draw
77%
CR Belouizdad or Young Africans
72%
Draw or Young Africans
50%

Winning margin

CR Belouizdad wins by 2+
24%
Young Africans wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CR Belouizdad 1+ goals
75%
CR Belouizdad 2+ goals
40%
CR Belouizdad 3+ goals
16%
Young Africans 1+ goals
57%
Young Africans 2+ goals
21%
Young Africans 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CR Belouizdad (draw refunded)
68%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Belouizdad at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Belouizdad attack 1.96 + Young Africans defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.38

Young Africans attack 1.05 + CR Belouizdad defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CR Belouizdad scores more
50%
level
28%
Young Africans scores more
23%

CR Belouizdad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CR Belouizdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: CR Belouizdad 3–0 Young Africans

CR Belouizdad beat Young Africans 3-0 in CAF Champions League on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.