York 3–0 Wealdstone: Result & Stats | League #43

York

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wealdstone

O. Pearce 67' (pen)

J. Stones 64'

M. Fagan-Walcott 45+1'

3/29/2025

League #43 · Round 40LNER Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

York71%

×Draw16%

Wealdstone12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YorkExpected goals in this matchWealdstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.96

York

2.55

Wealdstone

0.96

York creates 166% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

2.40

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

York

2.40

Wealdstone

1.00

allows per match

York

0.92

Wealdstone

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York+0.00on par

Wealdstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Wealdstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

York or draw

88%

York or Wealdstone

84%

Draw or Wealdstone

29%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+

49%

Wealdstone wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

York 1+ goals

92%

York 2+ goals

72%

York 3+ goals

46%

Wealdstone 1+ goals

62%

Wealdstone 2+ goals

25%

Wealdstone 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)

85%

Wealdstone (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Wealdstone away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 2.40 + Wealdstone defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.55

Wealdstone attack 1.00 + York defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

York scores more

71%

level

16%

Wealdstone scores more

12%

York at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

L. Richardson

45+1'

M. Fagan-Walcott

61'

J. Luamba← L. Richardson

61'

J. Stones← T. Sinclair

61'

D. Akinyemi← M. Armstrong

61'

M. Carayol← D. Hutchinson

64'

J. Stones↳ J. Luamba

67'

O. PearcePenalty

69'

B. Chadwick← A. Hunt

69'

D. Batty← A. Crookes

81'

C. Scott← T. Walker

89'

J. Brown← A. Dyer

York

Wealdstone

31

3

2

24

21

4

5

▼

Dyer

10

Kretzschm

17

▼

Hutchinso

34

▼

22

1

5

2

23

28

⚽

Fagan-Wal

3

▼

Crookes

8

▼

Hunt

17

▼

Richardso

15

▼

Armstrong

10

⚽

Pearce

7

▼

Sinclair

Manager: A. Hinshelwood

61'▲J. Luamba←▼L. Richardson

61'▲J. Stones←▼T. Sinclair

61'▲D. Akinyemi←▼M. Armstrong

69'▲B. Chadwick←▼A. Hunt

69'▲D. Batty←▼A. Crookes

York substitutes

29Luamba24Stones9Akinyemi19Chadwick18Batty14John-Lewis16Watson

Manager: P. Hughes

61'▲M. Carayol←▼D. Hutchinson

81'▲C. Scott←▼T. Walker

89'▲J. Brown←▼A. Dyer

Wealdstone substitutes

11Carayol18Scott15Brown35Baptiste26Omole