Wealdstone 0–3 York: Result & Stats | League #43

Wealdstone

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

York

D. Batty 90'

Z. Johnson 80'

M. Williams 70'

2/14/2026

League #43 · Round 33Grosvenor Vale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wealdstone33%

×Draw23%

York44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WealdstoneExpected goals in this matchYork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.71

Wealdstone

1.44

York

1.71

York creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 48 away

1.80

creates per match

1.63

1.80

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Wealdstone

1.80

York

1.63

allows per match

Wealdstone

1.80

York

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wealdstone+0.00on par

York+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wealdstone ↓

York →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wealdstone or draw

56%

Wealdstone or York

77%

Draw or York

67%

Winning margin

Wealdstone wins by 2+

15%

York wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Wealdstone 1+ goals

76%

Wealdstone 2+ goals

42%

Wealdstone 3+ goals

18%

York 1+ goals

82%

York 2+ goals

51%

York 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Wealdstone (draw refunded)

42%

York (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wealdstone at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

York away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wealdstone attack 1.80 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

York attack 1.63 + Wealdstone defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wealdstone scores more

33%

level

23%

York scores more

44%

York at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

52'

56'

56'

66'

66'

D. Batty← A. Hunt

70'

M. Williams↳ J. Grey

71'

J. Tiensia← O. Olomola

72'

S. Hassan← N. Tshikuna

76'

M. Adu Poku← M. Obiero

76'

T. Agyemang← D. Kadji

80'

Z. Johnson↳ M. Williams

86'

R. Fallowfield← B. Brookes

86'

A. Nathaniel-George← O. Banks

86'

C. Hewitt← J. Stones

90'

E. Dixon-Bonner← A. Georgiou

90'

D. Batty

Wealdstone

York

1

Male

15

King

27

⚽A

Williams

29

⚽

Johnson

3

Kitching

8

▼

Hunt

21

▼

Boateng

14

▼

Brookes

28

▼

Banks

9

▼

10

1

22

5

7

17

20

▼

Tshikuna

24

Spencer

8

▼

Kadji

3

▼

Georgiou

14

▼

Obiero

9

▼

Olomola

Manager: Sam Cox

71'▲J. Tiensia←▼O. Olomola

72'▲S. Hassan←▼N. Tshikuna

76'▲M. Adu Poku←▼M. Obiero

76'▲T. Agyemang←▼D. Kadji

90'▲E. Dixon-Bonner←▼A. Georgiou

Wealdstone substitutes

13Johnson11Hassan12Poku23Agyemang27Adarkwa28Dixon-Bonner29Tiensia

66'▲J. Grey←▼H. Boateng

66'▲D. Batty←▼A. Hunt

86'▲R. Fallowfield←▼B. Brookes

86'▲A. Nathaniel-George←▼O. Banks

86'▲C. Hewitt←▼J. Stones

York substitutes

31Sykes-Kenworthy2Fallowfield5Howe11Nathaniel-George12Grey17Hewitt18Batty