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York United vs CF Montreal — Canadian Championship 2018

York United
York United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
7/10/2019Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · 3rd Qualifying RoundYork Lions Stadium (Toronto, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

York United52%
×Draw22%
CF Montreal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York United
1.92
CF Montreal
1.27

York United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

York United
2.33
CF Montreal
1.20

allows per match

York United
1.33
CF Montreal
1.50

finishing

York United+0.00on par
CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

York United or draw
75%
York United or CF Montreal
78%
Draw or CF Montreal
48%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+
30%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals
85%
York United 2+ goals
57%
York United 3+ goals
30%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
72%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
36%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)
67%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 2.33 + CF Montreal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

CF Montreal attack 1.20 + York United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

York United scores more
52%
level
22%
CF Montreal scores more
25%

York United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: York United vs CF Montreal

York United and CF Montreal drew 2-2 in Canadian Championship on July 10, 2019.

The match was played at York Lions Stadium (Toronto, Ontario).