Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CF Montreal vs York United — Canadian Championship 2018

CF Montreal
CF Montreal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
York United
York United
7/24/2019Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · 3rd Qualifying RoundStade Saputo (Montreal, Quebec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

CF Montreal72%
×Draw20%
York United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Montreal
1.89
York United
0.46

CF Montreal creates 311% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

CF Montreal
1.92
York United
0.43

allows per match

CF Montreal
0.50
York United
1.86

finishing

CF Montreal+0.00on par
York United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

York United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw
92%
CF Montreal or York United
80%
Draw or York United
28%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+
45%
York United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals
85%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
56%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
29%
York United 1+ goals
37%
York United 2+ goals
8%
York United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)
90%
York United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

York United away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.92 + York United defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

York United attack 0.43 + CF Montreal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

CF Montreal scores more
72%
level
20%
York United scores more
8%

CF Montreal at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Canadian Championship: CF Montreal 1–0 York United

CF Montreal beat York United 1-0 in Canadian Championship on July 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Saputo (Montreal, Quebec).