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York United vs Atlético Ottawa — Canadian Championship 2018

York United
York United
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Atlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawaadvanced
7/8/2025Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · Quarter-finalsYork Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

York United49%
×Draw20%
Atlético Ottawa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York United
2.25
Atlético Ottawa
1.75

York United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

York United
2.33
Atlético Ottawa
2.17

allows per match

York United
1.33
Atlético Ottawa
2.17

finishing

York United+0.00on par
Atlético Ottawa+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

Atlético Ottawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

York United or draw
70%
York United or Atlético Ottawa
80%
Draw or Atlético Ottawa
51%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+
29%
Atlético Ottawa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals
89%
York United 2+ goals
65%
York United 3+ goals
39%
Atlético Ottawa 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Ottawa 2+ goals
52%
Atlético Ottawa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Ottawa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Atlético Ottawa away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 2.33 + Atlético Ottawa defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Atlético Ottawa attack 2.17 + York United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

York United scores more
49%
level
20%
Atlético Ottawa scores more
30%

York United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: York United vs Atlético Ottawa

Atlético Ottawa beat York United 4-3 in Canadian Championship on July 8, 2025.

The match was played at York Lions Stadium in Toronto, Ontario.