York United 0–0 Atlético Ottawa: Result & Stats

York United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Ottawa

6/22/2025

Canadian Premier League · Round 12York Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

York United36%

×Draw26%

Atlético Ottawa39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

York UnitedExpected goals in this matchAtlético Ottawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

York United

1.33

Atlético Ottawa

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 83 away

1.39

creates per match

1.43

1.34

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

York United

1.39

Atlético Ottawa

1.43

allows per match

York United

1.34

Atlético Ottawa

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York United+0.00on par

Atlético Ottawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

Atlético Ottawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

York United or draw

61%

York United or Atlético Ottawa

74%

Draw or Atlético Ottawa

64%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+

16%

Atlético Ottawa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals

74%

York United 2+ goals

38%

York United 3+ goals

15%

Atlético Ottawa 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Ottawa 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Ottawa 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)

48%

Atlético Ottawa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

Atlético Ottawa away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 1.39 + Atlético Ottawa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Atlético Ottawa attack 1.43 + York United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

York United scores more

36%

level

26%

Atlético Ottawa scores more

39%

Atlético Ottawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Ottawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff