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Yokohama FC vs Sagan Tosu — J1 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
11/3/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC36%
×Draw27%
Sagan Tosu37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.21
Sagan Tosu
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 124 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.00
Sagan Tosu
0.99

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.49
Sagan Tosu
1.43

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
63%
Yokohama FC or Sagan Tosu
73%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
64%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
15%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
70%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
34%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
12%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
71%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
35%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
49%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sagan Tosu attack 0.99 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Sagan Tosu scores more
37%

Sagan Tosu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Yokohama FC 0–0 Sagan Tosu

Yokohama FC and Sagan Tosu drew 0-0 in J1 League on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.