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Sagan Tosu vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
4/11/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 9Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Sagan Tosu51%
×Draw25%
Yokohama FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.56
Yokohama FC
0.98

Sagan Tosu creates 59% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.26
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.19
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
76%
Sagan Tosu or Yokohama FC
75%
Draw or Yokohama FC
49%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
26%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
79%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
46%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
21%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
62%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
26%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
68%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
51%
level
25%
Yokohama FC scores more
24%

Sagan Tosu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagan Tosu vs Yokohama FC

Sagan Tosu beat Yokohama FC 3-0 in J1 League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.