Yokohama FC 0–1 Roasso Kumamoto: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Roasso Kumamoto

5/4/2022

J2 League · Round 14NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Yokohama FC47%

×Draw25%

Roasso Kumamoto28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchRoasso Kumamoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.18

Yokohama FC

1.58

Roasso Kumamoto

1.18

Yokohama FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 104 away

1.68

creates per match

1.33

1.02

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.68

Roasso Kumamoto

1.33

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.02

Roasso Kumamoto

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

72%

Yokohama FC or Roasso Kumamoto

75%

Draw or Roasso Kumamoto

53%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

24%

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

79%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

47%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

21%

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

69%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

33%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

62%

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.33 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

28%

Yokohama FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff