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Roasso Kumamoto vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
10/23/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 42Egao Kenko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto28%
×Draw26%
Yokohama FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roasso Kumamoto
1.09
Yokohama FC
1.45

Yokohama FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 86 away

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.19
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.49
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw
55%
Roasso Kumamoto or Yokohama FC
74%
Draw or Yokohama FC
72%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
11%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
66%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
30%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
10%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
77%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
42%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
39%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.49 · 106 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.19 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more
28%
level
26%
Yokohama FC scores more
45%

Yokohama FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Roasso Kumamoto 3–4 Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Roasso Kumamoto 4-3 in J2 League on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Egao Kenko Stadium in Kumamoto.